The advertising business has always relied on a certain amount of imagination about who, exactly, is receiving its messages. Now some marketers are making that imagination literal.
A growing number of agencies and brand marketers are basing campaign decisions on insights derived from synthetic consumers — digital simulacra built from census data, survey results and the algorithmic extrapolations of large language models. The approach promises faster research and the ability to test campaigns without the inconvenience of finding actual human beings willing to answer questions.
Goodway Group, the independent digital media company, has struck a deal with the data firm Arima to incorporate a "synthetic population" of American, British and German consumers into its media planning work, according to Paul Frampton-Calero, Goodway's chief executive. The arrangement will allow Goodway planners to run incrementality tests in a simulated environment before committing real money to real media.
"If you're trying to understand a particular product line or a particular region, the data is usually quite limited," Mr. Frampton-Calero said. The synthetic populations, he said, allow planners to model responses to various spending levels without leaving any market dormant as a control group.
(One imagines the synthetic consumers are also less likely to hang up during dinner.)
Goodway is not alone in its enthusiasm for artificial respondents. Magnum, the ice cream brand owned by Unilever; Vans, the sneaker company; and Kenvue, the consumer health company spun off from Johnson & Johnson, have been working with Vurvey Labs on synthetic persona research. Joy Doyin Ogunneye, who oversees innovation for Kenvue's Aveeno Body brand, said the approach had compressed strategy brief development from 30 days to three.
The technique is not without its skeptics. Stef Hoffman, who leads enterprise transformation strategy at Code & Theory, cautioned that synthetic findings should inform judgment rather than replace it. Julie Clark, a senior vice president at TransUnion, offered blunter advice about personas built on unreliable source data: "You have to start with the right foundation."
Still, the direction seems clear. Mr. Frampton-Calero said he hoped eventually to use synthetic research to address questions beyond media — including pricing and distribution.
The focus group of the future, it seems, may not require refreshments.
Original story published in Digiday: "More CMOs are basing marketing on synthetic consumers", by Sam Bradley